Following the Democratic Party’s McGovern-Fraser Report and the Federal Campaign Act of 1971, recent elections cycles have stabilized into a four stage rhythm: the exhibition season, the bellwether primaries, the battleground primaries, and the bridge primaries (Adkins and Dowdle 2005). The exhibition season begins with summertime campaign announcements and ends before the Iowa Caucus. The bellwether primaries includes four delegate selection in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. A geographical voter cross-section give each candidate an opportunity to earn delegate before committing to the expensive and mostly definitive battleground primary stage. The battleground primaries “represent the most delegate-rich portion of the process …show more content…
Based off of Kasich’s previously mentioned accomplishments as congressman and governor, his strengths as a candidate rests with his appeal to moderate and “old-school” Republicans. Strengths that will make him appealing to voters across the thirteen states which go to the polls on March 1, 2016 (Levinson 2016). Thus, Kasich’s delegate strategy has been to survive the bellwether primaries and wait until the battleground primaries where he has an advantage over his one-dimensional opponents and will be able to accumulate considerable amounts of delegates nationwide. Although this is a sound strategy that enables Kasich a mathematical chance to win the nomination, he has been in the background the entire race unable to emerge from the shadows cast by the frontrunners. As the frontrunners talk over each other and make snide comments during debates and rallies, Kasich is able to stay out of the political fray and rise above the perceived childish bickering (Grunwald 2016). Disgusted GOP voters may turn away from the derisive Trump and the unflattering Cruz and Rubio to the civil and dependable Kasich during the battleground primaries which plays right into the Kasich delegate strategy. However, Kasich should have done more to keep his name in the media cycle so voters do not forget about him when they go to the polls in
During these few weeks democrats and Republicans Who are running for president were engaged in a battle to win the Iowa caucus. The state of Iowa hosted the first official vote of the 2016 campaign. During the Iowa caucus, different tactics and strategies were used by both parties to gain votes, through the use of persuasion ,repugnant comments, and the use of the media. The two articles I will be discussing, “ Ad Wars of 2016 Campaign Erupt in a Changing TV Arena” by Nick Corasaniti and “Attack ! why next 2 weeks could get nastier than ever” by Jennifer Jacobs.
Nicholas Kristof’s “3 Peerless Republicans for President: Trump, Carson and Fiorina”, deems the leading candidates from the Grand Old Party unfit for presidency, and the public’s fixation with them a temporary affair. Multiple previous controversies being detailed, and the use notably bleak statistics help undermine the contenders while urging voters to look elsewhere. Kristof utilizes harsh diction with a simple, yet critical tone to denounce the trio, and further his own
The article, “Oklahoma Law: Tough on Minority Party and Independent Presidential Candidates”, by Richard Winger seeks to explain how Oklahoma stringent election laws came to be and why having these laws that make it difficult for minor parties to succeed should change. The problem Winger addresses in his article is supported by historical evidence ranging back from 1890 to today, with comparisons made to other states. The case against rigid election laws that Winger presents is supported by over a century of historical evidence he presents. Starting in 1890, when Oklahoma was still a territory, voters were free to create their own ballots. These ballots were typically provided by a voter’s preferred political party and would only carry the
“The people that are calling for me to get out are people inside the beltway.” A former Rand Paul supporter asked the Ohio Governor why libertarians should vote for him, Kasich responded with his beliefs in “smaller government, balancing the federal budget, and transferring money, power and influence out of Washington to the
Majority of the candidates took a different stance, by placing the blame on the Democrats, mainly Obama, for the state of today’s economy. I always find it quite funny when John Kasich attempts to answer any question asked of him, mainly because he normally responds by completely disregarding the question. This might be one of the reason why his poll numbers are so low, and also another reason why he was not fully included into the debate like the rest of his peers. It is obvious from the past two debates that Kasich’s central focus is on balancing the budget and tax reforms, but the other issues still seem to be unclear. In my opinion, both Marco Rubio and Rand Paul have clear plans on what exactly they would do if elected into office, while the others seem to have vague
“Why candidates win and why candidates loose” (American Politics Today, Bianco, Cannon, 218) is consequently a result relating to their campaign management/rendering. Through an image and issue oriented campaign, more specifically with active social media interaction, and ameliorating an essential, moderate, shared party identity, Kamala Harris has a realistic/crisp chance of winning the 2020 general election. Consequently, the named strategies can be utilized to overcome, unavoidable, challenges. Each major political party, republican/democrat, has an elected candidate or “representative which will run against each other in the general election; along with an elected third-party candidate.
Rubio in New Hampshire With Iowa and New Hampshire voting draw near, Florida Senator Marco Rubio is focusing his message on being the only candidate running who can relate to everyday people. “It is not enough to simply nominate someone who is upset and angry about the direction of our country,” Rubio said adding it is not enough just to tap into the anger and frustration like the current front-runners Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are doing in the campaign trail. Without mentioning his rivals Trump or Cruz, Rubio pointed out that voters cannot just “elect any Republican.” Making several stops across New Hampshire on Friday, Rubio shared his plan for a New American Century in his last stop in Merrimack, NH, before he takes off to Iowa for the last week making numerous campaign stops as well as partaking in the last debate before the Iowa caucus
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee seems to have most of the right attributes that would make him a perfect Republican nominee. Such as, his unwavering family values, anti-abortion views, and his strong support of the 2nd Amendment. But, Huckabee is at a disadvantage because some Republican party leaders don’t think that he’s electable, making him unpopular. Governor Mike Huckabee might have a chance at winning the 2016 Republican nomination, but it is unlikely that he will succeed any further if he does.
Huckabee’s firm position supporting the 2nd Amendment and the protection of gun ownership rights ought to benefit him in regards to gaining popularity among the primary voters in the Republican party, of which 71% favor gun rights over gun control (Pew Research Center). His plans for securing the Mexico-United States border will also help him gain votes, seeing as 73% of Republicans favor the building of a fence along the Mexican border (Pew Research Center). Huckabee his very clear as to what his values are, if elected, he would push for a reversal of the Supreme Court decision on gay marriage (PBS), 66% of Republicans oppose gay marriage as well, though his stance on this issue would most likely create issues for him in the Presidential election, due to slightly over half (57%) of adults in the United States favoring the legality of gay marriage (Pew Research Center). Huckabee believes that the Affordable Healthcare Act should be repealed (PBS), along with the 73% of Republicans that believe that the Affordable Healthcare Act will continue to have a negative impact on the country in the near future (Pew Research Center). Huckabee’s opposition to abortions will also help him gain votes among Republicans, 84% of whom believe it should be illegal in all or most cases, though 51% of the general public believe it should be legal in those conditions (Pew Research Center).
Presidential candidates will only seriously campaign in the 10-15 “swing” states where it is possible to persuade the vote (Liptak, NYTimes). These candidates do not show much campaigning effort toward “stalwart liberal states such as California and Massachusetts, or staunchly conservative states like South Carolina and Texas” either because “they know they have no chance of winning in the state or because they take for granted that they will win it” (Newton and Rich, “Point: Electoral College”). However, this attitude leads to indifferent voters. In 2008, 67% of the voter turnout was from the 15 states that received the most campaigning attention, which was six points higher than the turnout in the other 35 states (Liptak, NYTimes).
Presidential nominating conventions take place in the summer of an election year. The main task is to select the party’s presidential nominee, even that in all recent contests one candidate has already emerged from the nomination process with a clear majority of delegates and wins the nomination on the first ballot. To get the nomination, a candidate needs the support of a majority of the delegates, and if no candidate receives a majority after the first round of voting at the convention, the voting has to continue until someone does. After the delegates nominate a presidential candidate, he chooses a vice-presidential nominee, who has to be ratified by the delegates. The normal performance of the nominations used to have a pattern, in which there is a frontrunner that is leader in the early public opinion polls and has raised a large amount of money, and goes on to win the nomination.
(Election 2016) Kasich is focusing primarily on New Hampshire, and currently has the most support there out of the first three states to vote in the primaries .(New Hampshire Voting
This data demonstrates the low chances of a third party candidate being able to gain any electoral votes. The system clearly disproportionately gives out electoral votes, making it especially difficult for third party candidates to win any elections. Additionally, in the 2000 presidential election, a third party candidate, Nader, went up against Gore and G.W. Bush. While Gore obtains 266 electoral votes, Bush receives 271, automatically making him the winner. On the other hand, the third party candidate, Nader, received a total of zero electoral votes, even though he gained 2,882,955 popular votes.
It is clear that American voters tend to avoid local elections and off-year elections. Run-off elections are also likely to register lower voter turnout as compared to first-round elections. The larger the gap between first round elections and run-off elections, the higher the decline in voter turnout. Moreover, there are lower percentages of young people voting as compared to the older population. This is an important point to note since it highlights that young people do not have information guiding them on the importance of voting.
Finally, it will be argued that the modern political party system in the United States is a two-party system dominated by the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. These two parties have won every United States presidential election since 1852 and have controlled the United States Congress since 1856. The Democratic Party generally positions itself as centre-left in American politics and supports a modern American liberal platform, while the Republican Party generally positions itself as centre-right and supports a modern American conservative platform. (Nichols, 1967)