World Population Aging: A Global Analysis

Population ageing is a natural and an irreversible demographic transition being witnessed by developed and developing economies alike but, the consequences of such transitions are far more severe in less developed regions than the developed nations.

The effects of population ageing in developed economies have been well known - reduced working population and lessened efficiency, utilization and savings However, population ageing in developing nations is notably different, and is accompanied with several challenges.

‘Developing countries have been slower to recognise aging as a major public policy concern, despite the fact that older populations in many developing countries are growing more rapidly than are those of industrialized nations.

These countries will therefore be faced with “old” demo-graphic profiles at much lower levels of per capita income than for developed nations. 2

2 World Bank: Averting the Old age crisis: Policies to Protect Old and Promote Growth

3 United Nations : World Population Aging : 1950 - 2050

The study is based on the projections and trends drawn by Population Division, DESA, United Nations (UN) 3 at overall and regional levels. The text is synopsis of results majorly drawn by the DESA report on population aging.

The macro analysis compares demographic overalls to those of the more developed regions (North America, Japan, Europe, and Australia/New Zealand) and the less developed regions (Africa; Latin America and the Caribbean; Asia [excluding Japan] )

The second level looks at regional differences amongst North Africa, Africa (excluding North Africa), South-Central Asia, Asia (excluding South-Central Asia), Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, Europe (excluding Eastern Europe), North America, and Oceania. The characteristics of available data for this regional breakdown mean that a strict adherence to the demarcation between more and less developed countries within the regional tables is not

Those 80 or over are now only slightly more than 1 per cent of the total human population. This proportion is projected to increase almost fourfold over the next 50 years, to reach 4.1 percent in 2050. By 2050 the over-80 age group is projected to number almost 379 million worldwide, about 5.5 times as many as in 2000 (69 million persons). In 1950, persons over 80 numbered less than 14 million (Table 4).

Since female mortality rates are lower than male rates at older ages, the proportion of women in the older population grows substantially with advancing age. In 2000, women outnumbered men by almost 4 to 3 at ages 65 or older, and by almost 2 to 1 at ages 80 or above. Over the next half-century, the sex ratio of the older population is expected to increase. The evidence on which the UN projections are based suggests a somewhat faster growth in life expectancy among men than among women, particularly in the more developed regions. In the less developed regions, older women do not outnumber older men to the same extent since gender differences in life expectancy are generally much smaller. Current sex ratios in these regions average 88 men per hundred women among persons aged 60 or over, and