Essay On Overprecision

1425 Words6 Pages
Overprecision is the act of thinking your judgments and decisions are accurate without verification that our decisions are correct. This causes one to be overconfident. Most of us are overconfident than we should about our accuracy of knowledge and our beliefs. One’s confidence interval can be expressed by the bull’s-eye that people draw on a target. The smaller the bullseye is drawn, the more confident they are about their desired outcome. If the bull’s-eye shrinks at the same rate as their accuracy increases, they will not hit their target any more often. As it is more common for us to choose action that rely on the uncertainty of our accuracy, and what the consequences are of falling short of our goal. For example, the decision of how fast you need to drive to the airport not knowing how long the drive is to get there. One may miss their flight because they underestimated the uncertainties involved. A good manager does not assume he is right and knows all the facts more than his…show more content…
Self enhancement is a product of overestimation, in which people view themselves positively not accurately. People tend to overestimate their own performances, abilities, and talents. This bias is known as self enhancement. People also think they have more control over circumstances than they actually do. Picking one’s lottery ticket numbers can lead one to believe they have control over uncontrollable events, and superstitious beliefs are a false sense of control. Not taking control of things you actually can; like getting screened for cancer, is controllable. The planning fallacy is when we overestimate how much time it will take to complete a project or task. We are better allowing more time for the task rather than not meeting a deadline. Optimistic bias affects one’s judgment because the person believes they are at a lesser risk to a negative event than
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