Migration Patterns

Mobility and migration patterns

Studies in both the US and Europe have revealed shifts in migration patterns as cohorts move through different life-cycle stages (Cromartie and Nelson, 2009; Frey and Liaw, 1998; Breuer, 1986; Kahsaia and Schaeffer, 2009). The correlation between demographic transition and mobility was first mooted by Zelinsky in his essay titled “hypothesis of the mobility transition” in an attempt to link the three elements of population change and to locate the other two demographic transition processes, namely; mortality and fertility in space (Zelinsky, 1971). He hypothesised the two transitions to occur parallel along with modernisation within a population. The theory identifies five stages of population mobility that

The study also found that in these countries, commuting is dominated by low income, blue collar workers as opposed to how it transpired in North America where it is predominantly white collar, middle to upper income groups that are more likely to commute (Fuchs and Demko, 1978). Gedik (2008) found that for Turkey this transition occurred even before the country reached 50% urbanisation (at 27% urbanisation) and at lower GDP levels. One of the eight statements of the hypothesis provides that the processes of the transition tends to accelerate in spatial and temporal pace , due to both community causation factors and diffusion of technological knowledge from more advanced to less advanced regions (Zelinsky, 1971). Gedik (2008), predicted “the critical rung” or the change in dominance from rural to urban migration to urban to urban migration is likely to occur faster in most developing nations as they go through the transition, with different set of circumstances to those of their developed counterparts. Mostly this is attributed to rapid urbanisation that is not supported by rapid economic growth indicating that transition is not necessarily related to the development stage as proposed in the Zelinsky’s

Its total population growth was elevated until the late 1970s, fuelled mainly by fertility rates at 5.65, more than double the OECD average (2.7 in 1970). Fertility rates decreased to 2.7 in 2006, and total population growth rates fell from 2.6% in 1994 to 0.6% in 2007. Metropolitan areas continue to grow faster than the South African population as a whole. South Africa has seen heavy migration to the cities. The OECD (2011) has projected that growth rates for the urban population are expected to be four times higher than the rates for total population growth has been in recent years. However, Roux (2009) found that between 1996 and 2001 although black African migration streams were the largest, a far greater proportion of Whites migrated during the two periods (26%), followed by Coloured and Asians/Indians