Introduction to Probability Randomness and statistical regularity There are many instances in nature for which we cannot predict the possible event that may happen. We can say in these cases that the occurrence of the event is random. However for whatever reason that the event cannot be predicted we can make a definite average pattern of results can be seen in these situations leading to random occurrences when the situation that led to the event is repeated a number of times. The simplest example for this would be if a coin is flipped many times, for roughly half of the flips it shall turn up heads. Probability measures the likelihood of an event occurring. Statistical regularity is the tendency of repeated experiments for the pattern …show more content…
An experiment can be considered random when there is little precision in which we can determine the possible outcomes of the experiment. The frequency of an outcome occurring can be determined by the fraction: f_N (A)= (N(A))/N Where A is one of the possible outcomes of the experiment, N is the integer number of times we repeat the experiment and N(A) is the number of times that outcome A occurs. If there is a certainty that the relative frequency will go to a limit as N increases then we can say that the outcome A has a definite probability of occurring. The Axioms of Probability The sample space is a mathematical collection of all possible experimental outcomes. An object in a sample space is called a sample point. Each sample point, therefore, corresponds to a possible outcome of an experiment. An event is a set of sample points. Event A is the set of all sample points such that certain conditions on the sample points are satisfied. Therefore, an event is a subset of the sample space. A probability measure is an assignment of real numbers to the events defined on the collection of all possible experimental outcomes. The probability of an event A occurring is denoted by
What is meant by ‘statistical infrequency’ as a definition of abnormality? [2 marks] Gavin describes his daily life. ‘I sometimes get gripped with the thought that my family is in danger. In particular, I worry about them being trapped in a house fire. I now find that I can only calm myself if I check that every plug socket is switched off so an electrical fire couldn’t start.
Chapter two reviews probability and the normal distribution. Probability equals the number of events meeting the specified condition divided by the number of possibilities (Mirabella, p. 2-1, 2011). For example, my organization two primary products. Those products are orange postal bags and brown boxes. Forty percent of the volume consists of orange postal bags.
PSY 350: Experimental Psychology Statistics planning worksheet 1. What is your conceptual IV? That is, what thing do you want to change for participants because you think it will affect an outcome? If you have more than one IV, answer this question for each IV separately. The conceptual independent variable is the emotions of the participants during the experiment. 2.
pattern: Regularities and predictable relationships that emerge during the analysis of victimization data. Example: The age of the robbers from last year and now is between 22- 35 years old. 4. trend: Increases or decreases in a variable over the time.
This endless circle observed by Ridley shows how free will is hard to be truly expressed as either we are being responsible or are expressing the determinisms of what we are responsible for. Ridley goes on to say how critics use Hume’s Fork to see it as a way to predict human behaviour and how once the mathematical factor be put in place. Ridley’s claim: “Human behaviour is unpredictable in the short term, but broadly predictable in the long term.” is supported by French mathematician and physicist, Pierre-Simon de LaPlace. LaPlace talks about the Chaos theory that rests on chance and luck in predictions, “Theory holds that even if you know all the determining factors in a system, you may not be able to predict the course it will take, because of the way different causes can interact with each other.”, which acts as a shield in defense of Ridley’s claim of human behaviour unpredictability inferring that even if all genetic determinisms and determinisms caused by society and culture be taken into play, human behaviour cannot be
John M. Barry addresses his feelings about scientists and their research through the piece from, “The Great Influenza,” an account of the 1918 flu epidemic. He adopts a speculative tone and utilizes rhetorical strategies such as fallacies, metaphors, and word choice to characterize scientists research. Barry describes the positive mind set and the requirements to be a scientists. The requirements of being a scientist would not only be, “intelligence and curiosity,”but to also to be open minded and to have courage.
Society most of the time recognized exceptional individuals, whose performance in sports, science, arts, politics is vastly superior to that of the rest of the population. Speculations On the cause of these individuals’ extraordinary abilities and performance are as old as the first records of their accomplishments. Such as the influence of the ecology of the bodies, or the incidence of the stars and planets the day of the birth, or special gifts. As the humanity evolution all these theories loose acceptation. Others believed that the illustriousness of these individuals is inherited.
The book “Outliers,” by Malcolm Gladwell takes readers on a momentous adventure of twists and turns through life's most optimistic lessons. The aspiration of the book “Outliers,’ is a reflection of how the author Gladwell would like his readers to view and glide through the journey called life. Examples given within the book help to shed light on positive lifelong learning experiences. The key question in the book “Outliers,” is what makes people who are great achievers different from regular people? ” The term “Outlier,” illustrates phenomena’s that can happen apart from what is considered to be the social norm (Gladwell, 2007).
God 's existence has been a continuous debate certainly for centuries. The issue of God 's existence is debatable because of the different kind of controversies that can be raised from an "Atheist as being the non-believer of God" and a "Theist who is the believer of God". An atheist can raise different objections on the order of the universe by claiming that the science is a reason behind the perfection of the universe. In Aquinas 's fifth argument, he claims that the order of the universe cannot be explained by chance, but only by design and purpose. To explain this order of the universe he concludes that, there is an intelligent being whom we call "God".
[ADD TITLE] [ADD QUOTE & EXPLAIN IT]. The Lottery, written by Shirley Jackson in 1948, is a contemporary teaching that is often referred to as a horror story whereas Kurt Vonnegut Jr.’s story, Harrison Bergeron written in 1961, is seen as an eccentric satirical dystopian fiction. In The Lottery, the story takes place in a small rural town in which the person who draws the slip with a black dot on it, is to be stoned to death by the rest of the town members. On the other hand, Harrison Bergeron takes place in the year 2081 where everyone must be handicapped to maintain equality. Although Jackson’s The Lottery and Vonnegut’s Harrison Bergeron are based in two different time periods and settings, both convey similar criticisms that apply to our own lives.
Nicholas Craft AP Language and Composition Mrs. Fertenbaugh August 24 2015 Certainty is Key In this except from John M. Barry’s book The Great Influenza, the author discusses the challenges of science and the significance of certainty. In the field of science, certainty is important and it is necessary in order to advance. Being uncertain about something when it comes to science can cause a scientist to potentially miss out on an important discovery or fail to accomplish something. John M. Barry illustrates the importance of certainty with syntax, diction, and allegories.
The most interesting part of the birthday paradox might as well be that it is calculated using the probability that every birthday is different, because both probabilities are parallel. Another interesting part about this paradox is that instead of the probability of two people having the same birthday decrease as more people are added as we can see from an every day life problem such as taking a slice of pizza from a whole, the chances increase as there are more people available for having the same birthday, which automatically makes the results a linear graph. 3) Introduction:
The two basic types of random variables are discrete random variables and continuous random variables. A discrete random variable can take on at most a countable number of possible values. For example, a discrete random variable X can take on a limited number of outcomes X1,X2,X3,…..,Xn (n possible outcomes), or a discrete random variable Y can take on an unlimited number of outcomes Y1, Y2, Y3, …. (without end) because we can count all the possible outcomes of X and Y (even if we go on forever in the case of Y), both X and Y satisfy the definition of a discrete random variable. By contrast, we cannot count the outcomes of a continuous random
In quantitative research, variables are identified and defined, and then relevant data is collected from study participants. A strength of this type of research is that the data is in numeric form, making it easier to interpret. It also studies the relationship between independent and dependent variables and can address questions such as does a relationship between variables exist, what is the direction of the relationship, how strong is the relationship between the variables, and what is the nature of the relationship. To be able to discover and answer the cause-and-effect relationship is a strength of quantitative research. Lastly, in quantitative research, the study can either be experimental or nonexperimental, meaning clinical trial or observational study, allowing for different types of research studies to be conducted.