Essay On The Black Swan

897 Words4 Pages
The Black Swan: The Impact of The Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicolas Taleb exposes the phenomenon of uncertainty, and society’s want to generalize it. The metaphor of the black swan comes from the saying that the black swan would be seen before something extreme and impossible would happen, as all swans were thought to be white. In 1697 Willem de Vlamingh discovered the first black swan in southern Australia and his discovery justified the black swan existence and the blindness of the unknown. A “Black Swan” is an event that has the characteristics of being an outlier, the ability to create an impact, and the want of an explanation for its occurrence, or predictability. General examples of the black swan are the rise in religions, rise in…show more content…
In reality there are very few who have guaranteed a “safe” ride. The factors many people forget is the chance of bad luck. A car crash is a perfect example of this because no one knows the driver of the car behind you. Will you get to your destination safely? Will her or she brake in time? Is the driver texting? Is he or she an experienced driver? You know they passed the driver’s test, the rest of the driver’s credentials are unknown. The fourth quadrant is the moment of whether you should speed up, slow down, honk, swerve, or may bad luck just be upon you. Statistics of the number of accidents in a town or the percentage of teenagers who text and drive on the road mean nothing. A car crash is a car crash and it cannot be predicted. Taleb enlightened me with the Black Swan Theory because there is only so much you can do to predict something, that really you have to leave it up to luck and fate to receive the outcome. By generalizing a situation, you have many options to prepare for if something goes differently than you expected. With this theory, I have learned to generalize my situations to have alternative choices. I have become more open to the changes and new opportunities without expecting anything from them. The “fourth quadrant” of mine is left for discovery upon situations and I just have to be prepared to make a decision. The Black Swan: The

More about Essay On The Black Swan

Open Document