Resilience Thinking: The Adaptive Cycle Of System

Another core viewpoint of resilience thinking is the adaptive cycle of system. After researching the ecological system across the world, people found out that most natural systems would go through a repeated cycling process, it includes four stages: fast growth, stable conservation, release and reorganization (Fig.3), in which the fast growth and stable conservation are in forward cycle, while release and reorganization are in background cycle. Forward cycle has the characteristics of high stability, strong storage capacity and being good at accumulating resources, which hare good for the system stability; while backward cycle is uncertain, novel and experimental, it may generate destructive impact on the system [6]. During rapid urbanization

New-town Development Framework based on Resilience Thinking

The resilience thinking theory reflects that the development of ecological sensitive areas shall not only guarantee the resilience of district development, which requires maintaining and protecting the local natural ecological environment as much as possible in new-town construction and planning; but also increase district vitality, guiding the system to enter forward cycle stage, which requires new towns to absorb population and provide sufficient employment opportunities, so as to build a stable social-ecological system. Based on this, this thesis establishes the new-town development framework based on resilience thinking theory from the planning of innovation forming, establishment of index system and adjustment of feedback mechanism.

4.1. Planning innovation of sustainable development

In order to resilience of system and guide the system to enter forward cycle, it is necessary to, from the perspective of planning; introduce the two contents of ecological capacity control and construction scale estimation based on the traditional planning.

4.1.1 Ecological capacity control based on ecological

Based on the assessment result, we can calculate the ecological environment carrying capacity of the district, which is extremely important to guarantee the resilience of the district.

  i  j  1 1＋ 2 2＋ 3 3＋ Land C P C P C P C P (1)

 Water resource carrying capacity

There are many methods to survey water resource carrying capacity, this thesis adopted the A Simulation-and

Optimization-Based Control Object Inversion Model, or COIM model method[7]. Its basic thinking is to closely focus on the concept of water resource carrying capacity, using the “mutual restriction model of water resource system, social-economic system and ecological system” as the basic model, using “Maintaining the virtuous cycle of ecological system” as the control constraint and using the “Support of maximized social-economic scale” as the optimizing objective, so as to establish the optimal model. The “Maximized social-economic scale” obtained through the solution of optimal model (or back-stepping of control objective) is the water resource carrying capacity.

4.2.2 Construction scale forecast based on integration of industry and city

Forecasts of new town population are usually made on the basis of construction land scale of new town,