The Inverse Bayes’ Factor
The risk ratio, ρ in eEquation. (4.1), measures the odds of the null hypothesis being “true” (the party wins the election from a constituency) to it being “false” (the party loses the election from that constituency) under a particular set of data which, in this case, is that the party is the incumbent party in the constituency. In this formulation of risk, the data applicable to the different outcomes (winning or losing the election) was the same (the party was the incumbent). An alternative view of risk is obtained by posing the following question: given two rival scenarios— – in the first, a party is the incumbent in an election to a constituency while, in the second, it is a challenger— - what is the ratio of its probabilities of winning in these different situations?
In this case, the risk ratio of being the incumbent party is the ratio of the likelihood that the party wins the election if it was the incumbent to the likelihood that the party wins the election if it was a challenger. Here the outcome is the same (the party wins the election) but the data that is input is different (incumbent or challenger). In order to answer this question, the relevant risk ratio (represented by σ) is . Hereafter, σ is referred to as
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The term in eEquation. (4.3) is the inverse Bayes Factor (IBF) applied to the party that won that constituency. The inverse Bayes Factor is the odds of the null hypothesis being true (the party wins) under one set of data (the party was the incumbent), against it being true (the party wins) under the obverse set of data (the party was a challenger). If then, given that the hypothesis is true (the party wins), we are more (less) likely to observe one set data (A: the party is the incumbent party) than the complementary set of data (: the party is a
This is shown in an article written by Quartz that states that “Wisconsin’s partisan gerrymandering deprived citizens of their constitutional right to a vote with value” in other words would diminish a person's
1. Why did the framers of the Constitution adopt separation of powers with checks and balances? Give some examples of checks and balances found in the Constitution. The framers of the Constitution wanted to ensure that no one individual branch of government had more power than another.
The conflict of on party receiving more representation turnout for racial gerrymandering has introduce opposing views to this system. Due to a common focus on racial diversity and representation there has been an increase in programs to solve this issue. Racial gerrymandering tries to repair certain issues although it promotes a single party with unequal representation.
Enactment of term limits Term limits will help in increasing electoral competition by increasing the number of open seat elections. However, there is an assumption since there is little evidence that joins this, and on another case when an incumbent goes for reelection, competition is suppressed by term limits. Term limits make the elections to be less competitive but on the other hand, they increase the number of open seats contest (Sarbaugh, 2002). Political parties play a major role in political competition and their strength is measured by their ability to exert control over their candidates who are on the ballot papers.
In that document he was talking about the head of the rival party. Political parties were also responsible for gerrymandering. Gerrymandering is when the political party with the most power gets to draw districts, so they group up as many of their parties members in one district as possible in order to get more votes. Political parties had negative effects on the
The popularity of the members of Congress and Congress overall has been declining as the years pass and time changes. The dissatisfaction and disapproval of the public is so high because according to David Mayhew who wrote Congress the Electoral Connection members of Congress are single-minded people who are only focused on reelection, involve in “smart” behavior such as position taking, credit-claiming and advertisement. Also, according to Mayhew parties are weak, however, that is all not true people tend to vote more so for their party than the person in general. Arnold the writer of Logic of Congressional Outcome, states that Congress has many things to take into account such as citizen preference, robe-challenger, has to take into account
Party strength is a measure of the ability of a party to get people to vote for its candidates. The post-World War II shift in party strength was part of a massive shift in policy over time. Scholars saw Republican politicians increasingly excel at getting elected at the local level (Lublin 2006), to offices in the state (Hayes and McKee 2007), and federal governments (Black and Black 2002, 1992; Shafer and Johnston 2006). It is difficult to see how the Republican Party would have become the majority in Congress in 1994 without the increased voting strength in the South. This marked a dramatic shift in national policy.
Factions and Federalist Essay No. 10 The federalist papers were a series of 85 essays written to convince the citizens of New York to ratify the constitution. Federalist essay No.10, written by James Madison, discusses political factions and their effects. Madison’s definition of a faction is clearly stated in the essay.
It allows them to use tactics such as packing and cracking which can have a tremendous impact on elections. Packing is when politicians draw out district maps for each party based on population. Packing can swing the vote because the population of one party could out weight the population of the minority party within the same district, causing the entire district to swing with the majority. Voters feel that the other tactic, cracking, gives them a disadvantage because the political parties are being spread out between multiple districts which causes one district to have the majority party in multiple areas (King, Elizabeth). When the politicians of the party in power have drawn out the voters’ map, they maintain power over the lines of the map.
As I read this article 15 times or more trying to fully understand it all, my mind is taken back over, and over again to the movie, “The Blind Side.” In this movie Michael Oher has to overcome being taken from his mother at a young age, becoming homeless, adapting to a new life with a “family.” He has to try to fit in, in his new school, make decent grades. The school is predominately white, Christian school, and Michael is a black kid from the wrong side of the tracks. With help from his new family, friends, and the community Michael overcomes many obstacles and goes from a not so smart homeless kid, to high school graduate with college football in his future.
Also, the idea of a second Presidential election, which could be necessary if no candidate wins over over 40% of the vote, would be grim to contemplate. To
It is clear that American voters tend to avoid local elections and off-year elections. Run-off elections are also likely to register lower voter turnout as compared to first-round elections. The larger the gap between first round elections and run-off elections, the higher the decline in voter turnout. Moreover, there are lower percentages of young people voting as compared to the older population. This is an important point to note since it highlights that young people do not have information guiding them on the importance of voting.
Rationale: Regardless of whether you realize or not, we are surrounded by probability. Consistently, we use probability to plan around the weather. Meteorologists can't predict precisely what the weather will be, so they use devices and instruments to decide the probability that it will rain, snow or hail. When the doctor gives us chances to survive, its probability.
However, the two-party system’s disadvantages outweigh these positives. At the state and local level, the two-party system has a negative effect on the government and voters, it ignores options outside of the main two parties, and is perpetuated by many
Many people believe that the election plays the most important role in democracy. Because a free and fair election holds the government responsible and forces it to behave on voter's interest. However, some scholars find evidence that election itself is not enough to hold politicians responsible if the institutions are not shaping incentives in a correct way. In other words, the role of the election on democracy, whether it helps to serve the interest of the public or specific groups, depends on other political institutions. I