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Maritime Risk Assessment Study

1070 Words5 Pages

Maritime risk assessment studies are categorized in three main groups. Firstly, they are categorized in two groups in terms of used methods: risk analysis methods which are based on either probability or simulation. Secondly, risk assessment studies are investigated in two groups according to the number of risk factors: Some studies present effects of several risk factors in detail, other studies present impact level of all risk factors. Finally, they are also categorized in two groups according to the sources of data: data which are from experts or from historical statistics.
Literature Review On Maritime Risk Analysis
Harrald et al. (1998) focuses on the modeling of human error related accident event sequences in a risk assessment of maritime …show more content…

(2008) uses the Bayesian Belief Network approach to integrate human factor into risk analysis. The Bayesian Belief Network is developed to model the maritime transport industry, by taking into account its different maritime actors such as ship owner, ship-yard. This study focuses on a collision in open sea. In the result of this study, configuration is suggested to reduce accident probability during the operation of the high speed craft. Kujala et al. (2008) analyses the safety of the marine traffic in the Gulf of Finland. In this paper, theoretical modelling is used and this model is based on probabilistic risk analysis and probability safety analysis. Detail accident statistics for the last 10 years are utilized thereafter the risk of ship collision is studied by theoretical modelling. Finally, the results of theoretical models are compared with actual statistics. This paper presents that grounding is the dominating accident type, the highest risks for collision are caused by the passenger ship …show more content…

(1999) presents a real-time simulation study investigating the manoeuvring performance of large tankers in the Istanbul Strait. The results indicate that when realistic environmental conditions are taken into account, the size of ships that can navigate safely in compliance with the traffic separation lanes is limited.
Or and Kahraman (2002) presents possible factors contributing to accidents in the Istanbul Strait by using Bayesian analysis and simulation modelling. Firstly, the Bayesian method is used to estimate conditional maritime accident probabilities in the Istanbul Strait. Then, this accident probabilities are combined with the geographical characteristics of the Istanbul Strait and traffic regulations in the simulation model. The result of simulation indicates impacts of local traffic density, transit traffic arrivals and meteorological conditions.
The simulation of the Istanbul Strait is done under traffic conditions by Kose et al. (2003), and the effects of probable increase in marine traffic due to new oil pipelines, are discussed. The model is developed to simulate the traffic within the Istanbul Strait, investigates behaviour of traffic for the different scenarios, different ship arrival and waiting times, gives information about future traffic for different scenarios. In the result of this study, it is argued that new pipelines of Novorossiysk and Supsa will increase the traffic at the Turkish

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