Multivariate Regression Analysis

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Multivariate Regression Analysis

1. Explain the reasoning behind your choice of variables

We are interested in explaining why some countries are more democratic than others. Our proposed explanation is that an economically developed society allows people to have a certain level of education and economic stability, which gives them space to turn to other important freedoms in life such as democratic rights. We also think a society that has a low level of cultural diversity (CD) tends to be more democratic since people find it easier to trust one another and therefore are more willing to delegate negotiated power to the authority of the government. Thus, our hypothesis is: in a comparison
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In mature form, autocracies sharply restrict or suppress competitive political participation. Their chief executives are chosen in a regularized process of selection within the political elite, and once in office they exercise power with few institutional constraints.

p_democ Institutionalized Democracy Democracy is conceived as three essential, interdependent elements. One is the presence of institutions and procedures through which citizens can express effective preferences about alternative policies and leaders. Second is the existence of institutionalized constraints on the exercise of power by the executive. Third is the guarantee of civil liberties of all citizens in their daily lives and in acts of political participation.

Independent variable I - Economic development (as measured by the Human development index)

undp_hdi Human Development
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It is also statistically significant because the P-value is less than the significance level (0.000 <0.05) therefore Human development index has a positive effect on democracy.
Each one unit increase in our second independent variables (Culture diversity) leads to an average change of – 1.145 in our dependent variables (Democracy) of unit but it is not statistically significant because its P-value ( 0.328)> signifacant level (0.05) therefore the negative relationship of culture diversity and democracy is spurious.

4. Provide a plausible argument for a causal association (or absence of it). Please include (and discuss) the results from SPSS in your assignment

Does greater economic development and lower cultural diversity lead to more democracy?

Although there is a correlation between high HDI / low cultural diversity and democracy (see Correlations table), the causal relationships are partly conclusive. On the one hand, the causal relationship between cultural diversity and democracy remain inconclusive,on the other hand, based on our analysis above, we see a positive causal relationship between HDI and
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