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Population Migration In India

1368 Words6 Pages

1. INTRODUCTION
Migration is an inevitable process coupled with economic development. It plays a significant role in the process of economic progress and social transformation because the shifting of the work force from primary to secondary and tertiary sectors that result in structural change. The improvement in infrastructure and communication accompanying economic development could result in increased population mobility.

According to International Monetary Fund (2014), India is the sixth largest economy in the world measured by the nominal GDP and third largest purchasing power parity. The GDP in India is observed to follow a linear trend increased gradually since in the three decades after independence. Since the mid1980’s India has …show more content…

It is observed that migration as a percentage of total population has been declining up to 1991 census, where as the rural to urban migration is showing an increasing trend over the period 1971 to 2001(Lusome & Bhagat, 2006). Over 22% of migrants has been increased from 1991-2201 since 1951 as revealed in Fig 1.The expansion in the migration rate in the course of 1990s is frequently seen as a result of the powers unleashed by the new monetary arrangement, which depended on the principles of liberalization,, globalization and privatization.
Population mobility is a course of action that gets intensified with the process of economic development. Among the various migration streams rural to urban areas is a common and ever-increasing phenomenon in India. Interestingly, this rural-urban migration is observed to have significant implications to the economic development from the previous empirical studies. Thus, this study aims to understand the short and long run effects with stable relationships and dependencies on Rural Urban migration on Economic Growth. The rest of the paper is structured as follows: Section 2 presents the literature review while section 3 gives a brief about methods and materials used. Section 4 deals with estimation techniques and empirical analysis and section 5 conclude the study with few …show more content…

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Data source for the study has been collected from publications issued by Government agencies in India. The variable Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is taken from Central Statistical Office’s Economics Surveys at Factor Cost with Constant prices for the period of 1951-2011.The variable Rural-Urban Migration are from census of India recorded decadal wise where data is collectively insufficient for econometric study. Accordingly, we interpolated in between years from 1951-2011 using Newton’s Forward Difference method and stochastic term is added to make complete time series dataset to get consistent results.
This study applies a linear dynamic model based on Pesaran et al (2001), with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling technique to analyze the long run and short run dynamics of Migration and Economic Growth in India. Further it focuses on the direction of casual relationship between two variables i.e. Rural-Urban Migration and Economic Growth using Granger Causality Test developed by Granger( 1969).

3. ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
4.1 Unit Root

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