Analysis Of Sir Francis Galton's Against The Gods

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A well known anthropologist, Sir Francis Galton (1822-1911) was the first to introduce the word 'Regression ' in his study of heredity. In against the gods : The remarkable story of risk , Peter L Bernstein relates the history of the efforts to assess and mitigate risk. Bernstein tells the story of Sir Francis Galton. Francis Dalton developed the theory of probability called Regression to the mean. It is a theory that predicts that over time, nature 's laws cause all living things to become representative of what is average for the species.
Galton, half cousin of Sir Charles Darwin, then descrbed how to determine the relationship between childrens heights using parent heights. This theory is depicted using the bell curve. On the bells right and left tail that is its extremities are the most extreme forms of type and the bells top is the average or the mean. Galton discovered that over many generations of a species existence, Its initial distribution to multiple variation gradually reverts to the mean. As most of its members in form, intelligence, and all other characteristics cluster at the top of the bell. Regression to the mean almost motivates every variety of risk taking and forecasting.
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He suspects that time required by a route delivery man to load and service a vending machine is related to the number of cases of products delivered. The engineer visits randomly 25 retail outlets having vending machines. Then the in – outlet delivery time and volume of product cases delivered are observed for each. The 25 observations are plotted . This display is the scatter diagram. This display clearly suggests a relationship between delivery time and delivery volume. The data points falls in a straight line to denote a straight line

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