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Social Circles In Presidential Elections

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When the election season comes, numerous polls come in to show what voters should expect when the election transpires. Sometimes, much as we trust these polls, the result is much different from the expectation. For instance, during the 2016 election in the United States, it was evident that Hillary Clinton would win. However, the results that came afterward showed that Donald Trump even won in states that were initially thought of as Clinton's strongholds.

Social scientists have been looking for ways of improving the results they get from the polls. In a recent study published in Nature Human Behavior led by Professor M. Galesic of Santa Fe Institute in the USA, it was found that asking about a voter’s social circles' voting intentions would help in coming up with accurate statistics about the elections' outcome.

The truth about social circles

Everyone has their …show more content…

For instance, they believe that if the scientist conducting the surveys picks a population that only favors Hillary more than Trump, there is a high probability that the results will not match the outcome, especially after what was seen in the 2016 US presidential elections.

While some subjects within the population would tell you about their candidate, it would be difficult to know if they were telling the truth or not. In fact, some of them will not even vote on Election Day, yet they will not say it.

It would also be difficult for the people of the sample population to tell the truth about their voting intentions if the individuals that surround them do not support their candidate. This also means that they would most likely tell a lie to avoid criticism.

Research findings

If the initial system is faulty, then it means that if you ask voters about the choice of the voters in their social circles, they will likely tell you the truth about their choice, and this will automatically change the

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