Armstrong (2001) identified some key principles and factors to consider in the selection of appropriate forecasting methods. The principles are listed as follows: • Use forecasting methods that contain methodical and detailed steps that can be explained and replicated. • If sufficient data is available, use quantitative rather than qualitative methods. • If large changes in the forecasts can be expected, use causal methods instead of time-series methods. • Unless considerable proof is present that a complex method will improve forecasts, use simple forecasting methods.
This method can be very effective when dealing with new product or new technologies 2. Time series: Time series forecasting method is done by using historical demand information. The basic concept of the time series method is that the past demand is good indicator for doing forecast of future demand. This method is very effective for the products with steady demand and when the demand pattern does not vary that much from one year to the next year. These are one of the simplest methods to implement in practical field and can provide good starting point to do forecasting (Chopra & Meindl 2007, 186-190) (Emmett & Granville 2007,
ARIMA was selected because Kwasi and Sharma (2015) have argued that multivariate time series models are better fit models in forecasting of agricultural commodities because it allows for inclusion of other exogenous variables such as rainfall, prices of other markets that have effect on the forecasted time series. In addition, these paper aims are to get accurate forecasting based on several forecasting method and to show that several method should be considered when it comes to agricultural production sector. Generally, ARIMA model is able to capture linear pattern of time series, has greater versatility and better seasonal patterns but requires historical data continuity (Zhang,
We need technology to help with our ever changing society" (http://www.debate.org/opinions/is-technology-moving-too-fast). Our society is moving at great pace each year, coming up with new inventions for almost everything. The one tool that helps the human race progress and an even pace and stay in control: technology. Because as the world goes, more problems have arisen and technology has helped to keep us from going under as a nation. Technology is what is keeping us out of the dark ages" (http://www.debate.org/opinions/is-technology-moving-too-fast).
Thus, shell models are drastic simplifications of the Navier-Stokes equa- tions. In particular, the GOY and Sabra models are some of the most interesting and most popular examples of simplified phenomenological models of turbulence. Although departing from reality, they capture some essential statistical properties and features of turbulent flows, like the energy spectrum, the enstrophy cascade and the power law decay of the turbulent flows in some range of wave numbers-the inertial range, see [?]. We now describe how the content of this thesis has been organized. This thesis is divided into 3 parts.
However statistical methods are most prevalent in the field of population ecology where huge amounts of data are often analysed. The following essay will report on how statistical methods of data collection and analysis are vital in understanding the cause and extent of population
Road congestion and management Land uses are usually serviced by traffic approaching from all directions, resulting to different schemes and streets are required of interconnecting to another. (Hobbs, 1979) The interconnectedness, however, may lead to resultant traffic flows, various speed flows, and the noise climate induced by these barriers. Road congestion, in its context, refers to a way in which vehicles interact to impede each others’ progress. Traffic control has the effect of reducing the capacity of the roadway potentially leading to delays and traffic slowdowns. (British Columbia Ministry of Transportation, 2001) After synthesizing the different literatures, it would appear that the related studies and literatures on traffic explored its sociological aspect.
More cars on the road means more traffic and congestion, especially in cities and highways. Traffic congestion has many negative effects in many different places, varying from psychological problems all the way to environmental problems. There are many causes of traffic and congestion, ranging from too many cars
2.4 Important of bus transportation According to Desaulniers & Hickman (2007) said to reduce pollution, reduces traffic congestion and as well as increasing the mobility of the population is a social mission to agencies that related with public transit. Therefore, all organisations that other such as airlines, railroads, and trucking companies having the goal is usually not to make profits. Public transits have several advantages and needing all people using public transit especially of public stage bus. 2.4.1 Reduce congestion The condition of the road will undergo congestion when many people using the road at peak hour to move from one destination to another destination. Hence, Madzlan and Noorfakhriah (2010) said peak hour is a
Ever since we settled down here, we often experience heavy traffic along the way. That is why our government officials should have a plan in mind on how to solve this problem and take action on the said issue. Transportation problems have been studied by many researchers and many solutions have been proposed to solve it. Improving transportation includes many ways to improve traffic performance in major cities and motorways. The government is responsible for improving the efficiency of transportation in cities and highways between cities which reduce traffic problems.