Water Scarcity Analysis
9. SCENARIO ANALYSIS
9.1. Water Scarcity Definition
According to ‘global environmental outlook 2000’ from United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, many African countries will face water stress or water scarcity in the coming decades (UNECA, 1999). Water stress is defined as less than 1700 m3/capita of water annually and water scarcity as having less than 1000 m3/capita of water annually. In order to devise appropriate management alternative, weather the scarcity is related to the resource availability or due to lack of limited development of water supply infrastructure should first be defined in any water management decision support alternative. The main purpose of this part of the analysis is therefore, to establish appropriate definition
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Second, only the groundwater supply sources were dedicated to satisfy Addis Ababa city without water supply contribution from surface water reservoirs. Finally, both the surface water reservoirs and groundwater supply sources were devoted to satisfy Addis Ababa city water demand without limitation of infrastructural development to see if there will still be unmet demand. If there is so, then Addis Ababa demand will not be quenched even with advanced level of infrastructure, at least with the available surface and groundwater resources in Upper Awash basin. If the unmet demand will be zero, then the scarcity is economic (inadequate infrastructural development) than …show more content…
9.1). To the contrary, even when only the groundwater sources were set to supply Addis Ababa city water demand, 100 percent coverage is seen throughout the simulation period, also for all the population scenarios (Fig. 9.2).
Unlimited abstraction from both surface reservoirs and groundwater supply sources also assured 100 percent the city water demand coverage and zero unmet demand both in dry and wet seasons throughout the model simulation period (Fig. 9.2).
100 percent Addis Ababa city water demand coverage due supply contribution both from surface water reservoirs and groundwater supply sources indicates that there is adequate water resource potential in Upper Awash basin for 2004-2015 simulation period. Hence, Addis Ababa city water demand deficit would have been at least reduced if there were sufficient physical infrastructure development in place. Hence, as in the general assessment made by IWIMI for Ethiopia, water scarcity in Upper Awash is more of economical than resource
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