1318 Words6 Pages

Real-Time Estimation of Propagation of Cascade Failure Using Branching Process
Priyanka Dey∗, Madhavi Parimi, S.R Wagh Electrical Engineering Dept
Veermata Jijabai Technological Institute
Mumbai India Email:dey.priyanka018@gmail.com, madhaviparimi7@gmail.com
Abstract—Blackouts are characterized by a sequence of line trips and load shed which have a large impact on society. One of the models to predict the effect of a blackout is the Branching Process. The Branching Process model is utilized to compute the probability distribution of number of outages for a given power system. The mean propagation, a Branching Process parameter, is estimated from the simulated data to predict the size of blackout. The simulated cascading data is generated by*…show more content…*

One of the world’s most severe blackout occurred in the Northern Region of India in July 2012 that left more than 700 million people without power [1]. There have been other severe blackouts which have occurred in the US [2] and Canada [3]. These scenarios are an indicator of the vulnerability of power system and it is essential to preserve the security and reliability of complex power grids. In order to avoid major loss to the utilities, it is necessary to take some corrective steps at the initial stage of the failure. This would be possible if, given an initial number of failures, it would be possible to predict how the failures would grow or propagate. The scale of the blackout for any system is determined by energy supply shortage , restoration time and number of transmission line outages*…show more content…*

However, this paper neglects the other causes for cascade e.g voltage instability, variations in frequency etc. The paper suggests that Branching Process gives an accurate result even for shorter number of simulations. The average propagation of simulated load shed is estimated in [11] and then the initial load shed is propagated with discrete and continuous Branching Process. The estimated load shed data is validated using the OPA and the TRELSS simulators. In [12], it has been proposed that Branching Process model matches the distribution of number of cascading line outages and load shed simulated by two enhanced versions of the OPA simulation on the IEEE 118-bus system and the North-east Power Grid of China (NPGC). In [13], a bulk statistical model generated from industrial data is used to describe the Branching Process, thereby predicting the probability distribution of the total number of line outages. A Galton-Watson Branching Process in which the failures are grouped into stages with respect to closeness in time is proposed in [14]. Taking this idea further, a novel way of generating the time instant of each failure using a real-time simulator -RT-Lab is proposed in this

One of the world’s most severe blackout occurred in the Northern Region of India in July 2012 that left more than 700 million people without power [1]. There have been other severe blackouts which have occurred in the US [2] and Canada [3]. These scenarios are an indicator of the vulnerability of power system and it is essential to preserve the security and reliability of complex power grids. In order to avoid major loss to the utilities, it is necessary to take some corrective steps at the initial stage of the failure. This would be possible if, given an initial number of failures, it would be possible to predict how the failures would grow or propagate. The scale of the blackout for any system is determined by energy supply shortage , restoration time and number of transmission line outages

However, this paper neglects the other causes for cascade e.g voltage instability, variations in frequency etc. The paper suggests that Branching Process gives an accurate result even for shorter number of simulations. The average propagation of simulated load shed is estimated in [11] and then the initial load shed is propagated with discrete and continuous Branching Process. The estimated load shed data is validated using the OPA and the TRELSS simulators. In [12], it has been proposed that Branching Process model matches the distribution of number of cascading line outages and load shed simulated by two enhanced versions of the OPA simulation on the IEEE 118-bus system and the North-east Power Grid of China (NPGC). In [13], a bulk statistical model generated from industrial data is used to describe the Branching Process, thereby predicting the probability distribution of the total number of line outages. A Galton-Watson Branching Process in which the failures are grouped into stages with respect to closeness in time is proposed in [14]. Taking this idea further, a novel way of generating the time instant of each failure using a real-time simulator -RT-Lab is proposed in this

Related

## Essay On Business Continuity Planning

837 Words | 4 PagesA power outage could also be another disaster. The company should have backup power generations in a central location. In order for the system and information technology personnel to establish a reconnection and continue normal operations, the system must have power. 7. Alternate communications If there was a disaster or anything to occur that would involve a loss of communications.

## Exponential Smoothing Case Study

1473 Words | 6 PagesAbstract In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the application of forecasting technique (i.e) Exponential smoothing model in Supply Chain Management of Flower Marketing. Periodical data on air lifting of Flowers (particularly Jasmine) were analyzed in Exponential Forecasting model using SPSS software package. Seasonal decomposition was done by Exponential smoothening model using Moving average method using STATISTICA software package. The data was analyzed to estimate accurate forecasting of supply of flowers to match increasing consumer demand and to supply flowers at the right place at the right time. Export of of flowers was forecasted by exponential method.

## Power Blackout Case Study

819 Words | 4 PagesThis chapter entails to present findings on the study that aimed at finding on the impact of power blackout on performance in the small and medium scale industry in Arusha district. The study was organized into three specific research objectives which were to assess the impact of power blackout on productivity for small and medium enterprises; to determine impact of power blackout on income for small and medium enterprises and finally to identify the implication of power blackout on human resource in small and medium enterprises. 4.1. Response Rate The targeted sample size was 60 respondents for collecting data with regard on the impact of power cut on performance in the small and medium enterprises in Arusha district. From the study, 48 out

## Triple X Syndrome Research Paper

1197 Words | 5 PagesThis can be difficult to predict in some cases because many factors influence a person’s development of their genetic condition. It is a random mutation that occurs in the chromosome pairs before birth. Gene mutations Gene mutations can vary from different disorders which may have expanded

## Monty Hall Problem: A Mathematical Analysis

1668 Words | 7 PagesRationale: Regardless of whether you realize or not, we are surrounded by probability. Consistently, we use probability to plan around the weather. Meteorologists can't predict precisely what the weather will be, so they use devices and instruments to decide the probability that it will rain, snow or hail. When the doctor gives us chances to survive, its probability. According to Eliezer S. Yudkowsky, “Reality dishes out experiences using probability, not plausibility”.

## Essay On Queueing Theory

833 Words | 4 PagesThe tasks of queueing theory are optimization and eventually definition of the system, which will provide minimum total cost of waiting for service, loss of time, resources for the service and downtime of

## Solid Propellant Burning Rate Analysis

837 Words | 4 PagesTailoring involves varying the oxidizer particle sizes, binder ingredients, or additives to alter the burning rate behavior in response to pressure in order to meet a certain mission objective. In Figure 6, the baseline burning rate is modified to become more and less pressure sensitive (blue and red), and this tailoring corresponds to changing the value of n in Equation 1; altering the magnitude of the burning rate although retaining the same pressure sensitivity (gray) corresponds to changing the value of

## The Markov Chain Model

998 Words | 4 PagesQueuing models are an abstraction of Markov chain models. On assessing their empirical validity to assign patrols to City police stations, it has been concluded that queuing theory provides good approximations of the system behaviour. We configure a fleet whose vehicles get calls while on the route. The objective is to minimize operating costs subject to several constraints, including a maximum waiting time for customers, modelled using queuing formulas. Besides the Markov chain and the queuing models, an ambulance service can be studied by computer simulation.

## Geo Spatial Parameter Estimation Essay

1959 Words | 8 PagesThis is done by method called Kriging. Kriging is method to interpolate the observations on a space (xyz) coordinates at unknown points. It uses weighted average of the neighboring points to estimate the value of an unobserved point. The value of function at any point is given

## Preventing Global Warming

778 Words | 4 PagesMoreover, even if advanced technologies are able to predict the incoming disaster, the occurrence is most likely still inevitable. There is

### Essay On Business Continuity Planning

837 Words | 4 Pages### Exponential Smoothing Case Study

1473 Words | 6 Pages### Power Blackout Case Study

819 Words | 4 Pages### Triple X Syndrome Research Paper

1197 Words | 5 Pages### Monty Hall Problem: A Mathematical Analysis

1668 Words | 7 Pages### Essay On Queueing Theory

833 Words | 4 Pages### Solid Propellant Burning Rate Analysis

837 Words | 4 Pages### The Markov Chain Model

998 Words | 4 Pages### Geo Spatial Parameter Estimation Essay

1959 Words | 8 Pages### Preventing Global Warming

778 Words | 4 Pages