Population Trend: Demographic Transition Model

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Population Trend (Demographic Transition Model)
- There are 5 stages in population trend
- Stage 1: High fluctuating – easy to get infected by the diseases, huger and natural hazards. (Ex. Tribes in Amazon)
- Stage 2: Early expanding – having a more stabilized life, which having access to the basic supplies. (Ex. Very impoverished country)
- Stage 3: Late expanding – most low-income countries.
- Stage 4: Low fluctuating – most middle and high-income countries.
- Stage 5: Contracting
- The rate of births decreases with death rates. This will affect the population to go higher, but we do not want the population to grow too fast.
Patterns in Births (Crude Birth Rate)
- The number of survived births per 1000 population in a year.
- Formula = Births/population
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Life Expectancy
- The average year can a person lived born in specific year, when mortality rates of each age remains constantly.
- Implies the quality of life.
- Women usually live longer than men.
- Ex. High: Japan: 84
Medium: World: 71
Low: Swaziland: 49
- In last 200 years, life expectancy in now twice than before.
- In the short-term, longer life expectancy mean more people at planet at same time. Life expectancy longer means leveling out. Population platou (population become balance).
Population Pyramid
- Population pyramid is a graph that can be used to indicate the growth or decline of fertility, mortality and migration by each age. It also showed the life expectancy.
- On the x-axis, there is number of population. The 0 is in the middle that starts to increase on both left and right side.
- On the y-axis, the man is on the left and the woman is on the right. In the middle, there is a column of ages starts small on the bottom to big on the top.
- The there most common shapes of graph could be

(Developing nation)
- Growth rate are slow
- High birth rate
- Short life
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Anti-natalist is discouraging to have more children and control the birth rate.
- Pro-natalist policy often appears in a small population country.
- Japan – pro-pronatalist policy – day-care support, childcare leave, reducing taxes.
- These policies are really encouraging women to have more births because the child can have insurance of stable life after births and the parents won’t struggles on money.
- Anti-natalist policy often appears in a large population country.
- China – anti-natalist – free birth control and family planning is offered, must required marriage certificate, fine on more children.
- These policies really restricted the parents because if they don’t have the money to pay the fine, their children cannot go to school and they will also in a financial risk. Also, they won’t get any benefit from the government

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